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December 31, 2021

COVID-19 Vaccine Market Dashboard

Find below an overview of the latest COVID-19 vaccine news, reflected in UNICEF’s COVID-19 Vaccine Market Dashboard.
Key Insights: Omicon's impact on the COVID-19 Vaccine Market
  • Designated a variant of concern by WHO, Omicron (B.1.1.529) has prompted a series of developments in the COVID-19 vaccine market since its detection in November.
1. COVID-19 Vaccines and Vaccine Pipeline:
  • Omicron was declared a variant of concern on November 26 in view of an unprecedented large number of mutations and preliminary evidence suggesting an increased risk of infectivity and capacity for immune escape (WHO, ECDC). Vaccine developers have therefore been quick to study the impact that Omicron has on their vaccines' efficacy.
    • To date, 11 vaccines that have been approved for use and 7 vaccine candidates that are under development are currently being tested against Omicron¹.
  • Tests have also been conducted to study the effect of six booster vaccines on the levels of neutralising antibodies as a potential second line of defense against severe disease².
    • These tests are vital as they provide more information on whether variant-specific vaccines will be necessary or whether booster shoots may be sufficient.
  • 10 vaccine developers have already announced that they are exploring the option of developing a new variant-specific vaccine³.
  • The emergence of Omicron has also reignited attention on developing second / third generation vaccines that offer a more robust immune response (BBC) (see section "COVID-19 Vaccine Pipeline" below for details). 
2. COVID-19 Vaccine Supply Agreements:
  • Since the classification of the Omicron variant, an increase has been observed in the number of new deals and/or the exercising of optioned doses from existing agreements (see section “COVID-19 Vaccine Agreements” below for details).
3. COVID-19 Vaccine Supply:
  • The amount of administered booster shots has drastically increased especially in high-income countries (HICs) since the variant's detection in November (see graph). Multiple countries have reduced the time lag between the primary series and booster shots in a quest to stem the rising infections from Omicron.

Note: The graph depicts the number of vaccine booster doses administered, relative to the total population of country groups. Booster doses are doses that have been administered beyond the original prescription. No booster shots have been administered in low-income countries. Data source: Our World in Data with data extracted as of December 28th, 2021. 
4. COVID-19 Vaccines Demand and Production Capacity
  • The COVID-19 vaccine market might also be impacted by product preferences (demand), based on different vaccines’ efficacy against variants (Omicron included), which could increase the chances of product specific supply-demand imbalances. 

Find references (1), (2), (3) below in the "Data Source" section.
Market Updates
COVID-19 vaccine deliveries
  • 10.7 Billion COVID-19 vaccine doses have been delivered worldwide to 226 countries/territories. This is up 800 Million from last fortnight. 
    Of the 10.7 Billion doses:
    • 907 Million (or ~8.5%) have been delivered through COVAX to 144 countries (incl. donated and facilitated doses). December has seen the highest amount of doses shipped through COVAX with a record 306 Million doses, compared to 155 Million doses shipped in November.
    • 33 Million have been delivered through AVAT (<1%) to 40 countries, up by 2 Million doses compared to last fortnight. 
  • In total, 776 Million doses have been donated and facilitated worldwide, an increase by 28% from last fortnight: 
    • 363 Million have been donated through COVAX, 180 Million were facilitated through COVAX - meaning the costs were shared by the US Government and the COVAX Facility -  and 233 Million doses were donated outside of COVAX.
    • Together, donated and facilitated doses channeled through COVAX now make up 70% of global donations. 
    • Some noteworthy donations from the last fortnight include: 
      • Germany donated 33 Million doses to seven countries through COVAX;
      • The USA donated over 5 Million doses and facilitated 27 Million doses to 37 countries through COVAX;
      • The largest recipients of COVAX donations were the Philippines and Indonesia, which received 25 Million and 20 Million doses respectively.
Find an overview of COVID-19 vaccine deliveries under the "Delivery" section of the dashboard at this link.
COVID-19 Vaccine Production Capacity
  • In the last fortnight, the following announcements on production capacity were made:
    • Valneva says it has the capacity to produce 100 Million doses a year starting in 2022 (Reuters).
    • Bharat Biotech announced that its monthly vaccine production capacity for Covaxin is 50-60 Million doses per month (GovIn)
    • The Chumakov Center plans to produce 20 Million doses of the CoviVac vaccine in 2022 (Tass)
    • Gennova Biopharmaceuticals, which developed an mRNA vaccine currently in Phase II/III clinical trials, said it could produce 200 Million doses annually (IT)
Find out more information on the reported global production capacity for the COVID-19 vaccine under the "Capacity" section of the dashboard at this link.
COVID-19 vaccine agreements
  • Vaccine developers have entered into 508 supply agreements globally for a total of 20.6 Billion COVID-19 vaccine doses.  
  • In the last fortnight, seven new deals were announced. The rise of the Omicron variant has led to a recent increase in new deals:
    • The European Commission reached an agreement with Pfizer/BioNTech to exercise its option to purchase more than 200 Million additional doses to be delivered in 2022 (Pfizer)
    • Shortly after Omicron was declared a variant of concern, the UK accelerated two new contracts to purchase 60 Million doses from Moderna and 54 Million doses from Pfizer/BioNTech for 2022 / 2023 (GovUK)
    • Switzerland exercised its option to purchase additional 7 Million doses of Moderna's booster vaccine (BS) in 2022, as well as 7 Million doses of Pfizer/BioNTech's vaccine (Admin)
  • Other noteworthy supply agreements from the last fortnight include:
    • Moderna announced an amendment to its existing contract with COVAX to accelerate supply of 20 Million doses by the end of this year. The company also announced a new supply agreement with COVAX for an additional 20 Million doses for delivery in the second quarter of 2022 and a total of 130 Million optional doses for the second and third quarter of 2022 (Moderna)
Find an overview of COVID-19 vaccine supply agreements under the "Agreements" section of the dashboard at this link.
COVID-19 country approvals
  • In the last fortnight, two vaccines have been approved in two countries. In addition to this:
    • WHO issued an emergency use listing (EUL) for Novavax' Covovax vaccine produced by the Serum Institute of India (WHO). This is the 9th vaccine WHO has approved for emergency use.
    • The European Medicines Agency (EMA) has granted conditional approval to Novavax' Nuvaxovid vaccine produced by Novavax, making it the fifth vaccine recommended in the EU (EMA)
Find an overview of all country approvals in the "Products" section of the dashboard at this link.
COVID-19 vaccine prices 
  • In the last fortnight, no new vaccine prices have been published. The average price per dose remains at $12.60.
Find an overview of all vaccine prices in the "Price" section of the dashboard at this link.
COVID-19 vaccine pipeline
  • 30 vaccines have been approved for use by at least one National Regulatory Authority. Three vaccine candidates are currently under regulatory review and twelve candidates are at Phase III clinical trials. 
  • In light of Omicron, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) has accelerated research and development of broadly protective vaccines by investing in Affinivax, Inc. for a novel vaccine candidate designed to protect against new COVID-19 variants (BW), as well as by expanding an agreement with Gritstone bio, Inc. to support the development of a self-amplifying mRNA (SAM) vaccine designed to tackle Omicron and future COVID-19 variants (CEPI).
Go to the "Product" section of the dashboard at this link, to find an overview of COVID-19 vaccine pipeline.
What's new in the Dashboard?
New "Devices" section
A new ‘Devices’ section has been integrated into the dashboard, to provide an overview of immunization device deliveries since 2021, by supply source (including COVID-19 vaccines and routine immunization). Currently only UNICEF sources are included. The visuals allow to filter by type of device (e.g. Syringes and Safety Boxes), as well as by material description (e.g. 0.5 ml, 0.3 ml)  for a more detailed overview. 

"Resold/swapped agreements" view added

Resold and swapped agreements have been added to the “Agreements” section, under the “Agreements Table” window. The tables capture dose reselling and dose swapping deals, where "dose reselling" refers to vaccines that were sold from the original purchaser to another recipient, and "dose swapping" refers to doses that were exchanged between two recipients, i.e. changing the delivery timelines to allow one entity in higher need of vaccines to receive doses earlier.
Data Sources for Omicron insights section

(1) Vaccines and vaccine candidates currently being tested against Omicron:
  • Approved vaccines: Pfizer BioNTech - Comirnaty (ME), Moderna - Spikevax (Guardian), Janssen - Ad26.COV 2.S (Janssen), Sinopharm (Beijing) - BBIBP-CorV (Scmp), Sinovac - CoronaVac (FT), Gamaleya - Sputnik V (EM), Novavax - NVX-CoV2373 (Reuters), AstraZeneca - Vaxzevria (BB), Bharat - Covaxin (Reuters), SII - Covishield (LM), Anhui ZL - Recombinant SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (Reuters);
  • Vaccine candidates: Betuvax-CoV-2 (Tass), Inovio - INO-4800 (Reuters), Valneva - VLA2001 (Valneva), Oravax virus-like particle vaccine (PT), Gritstone-GRT-R910 (PT), Daiichi Sankyo - DS-5670 (Nikkei), KM Biologics - KD-414 (Nikkei). 
  • Initial results have demonstrated a reduction in the production of neutralising antibodies against Omicron (compared to preaviously detected strains) for all vaccines tested so far, including those of Pfizer/BioNTech (Pfizer), Moderna (Guardian), Janssen (BB), Sinovac (Scmp), Anhui Zhifei Longcom (Reuters), Gemalaya (Biorxiv), Sinopharm (Reuters), AstraZeneca (Nature), and Novavax (WSJ). 
(2) Tested booster shots against Omicron:
  • For several vaccines, studies were conducted on booster shots which were found to increase levels in neutralising antibodies, namely for Pfizer/BioNTech (Pfizer), Moderna (Guardian), Novavax (Reuters) and AstraZeneca (Reuters). 
(3) Vaccine developers exploring the option of developing a variant-specific vaccine:
  • AstraZeneca (Guardian);  Novavax (Reuters); Janssen  (BB); Pfizer BioNTech (BB); Gamaleya (Tass); Finlay Institute (Reuters); Moderna (AN); Shionogi (Nikkei); Providence Therapeutics (Providence); Inovio Pharmaceuticals (Reuters).
  • Timelines for variant-specific vaccines announced by Vaccine developers
    • Moderna announced it could have an adjusted vaccine ready by March 2022 (AN);
    • Pfizer/BioNTech reported they could produce an upgraded booster shot in "100 days" (BB);
    • Gemalaya announced they could begin delivering modified doses in February 2022 (Tass);
    • Novavax said it could begin manufacturing a tailored vaccine in January 2022 (Reuters);
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